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1994-10-25
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Document 2308
DOCN M94A2308
TI Simulation of a fuzzy mathematical model of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Japan.
DT 9412
AU Morio S; Soda K; Hashimoto S; Fukutomi K; Shiomi S; Ichikawa S; Kamakura
M; Dept. of Hygiene, Faculty of Medicine, Tottori University,;
Yonago-shi, Japan.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):333 (abstract no. PC0265). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370267
AB OBJECTIVE: To analyse heterosexual HIV/AIDS transmission in Japan and to
identify effective countermeasures against the HIV/AIDS epidemic with
simulation of a fuzzy mathematical model. METHODS: The model was
analysed on the assumptions; (1) the population was metropolitan
residents of 20-30 years in Japan, (2) the population was divided into
two male and two female groups, (3) some of a male group are infected
with HIV abroad, return to Japan, (4) foreign HIV infected prostitutes
come to Japan and enter a female group, (5) HIV is transmitted from a
infected person to other persons through heterosexual intercourse. The
results of the fuzzy model was compaired with the results of the
sensitivity analysis of an usual un-fuzzy mathematical model. RESULTS:
The model showed that about 55 foreign cases of AIDS (2 males, 53
females) had escaped from the AIDS surveillance, and that transmission
of HIV by foreigners was important factor of the epidemic.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Adult
*Computer Simulation Disease Outbreaks/*STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Female
Fuzzy Logic Human HIV Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV
Seroprevalence/*TRENDS Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY Male *Models, Statistical
Population Surveillance Reproducibility of Results MEETING ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).